Blackjack's Card Counting Evolution

Blackjack and the computer make perfect marriage partners. The courtship began in the late fifties when four Army engineers, Baldwin, Cantey, Maisel, and McDermott, developed the first basic strategy, a set of rules for standing, hitting, splitting, and doubling down. The engagement occurred in the early sixties when Dr. Edward Thorp, using an IBM computer, proved that blackjack could be beaten by keeping track of the tens as they are played. Julian Braun, of the IBM Corporation, consummated this marriage by simulating the play of millions of blackjack hands on his high-speed computers to refine the basic strategy and Thorp's card-counting techniques.

Computers were needed to study the game because of the millions of calculations required to determine when to make each decision and for determining the impact of a shortage or surplus of tens on the player's odds.

With all this attention on blackjack, the game flourished as Dr. Thorp's book, Beat the Dealer, became a best-seller. Thousands of would-be card counters poured into Las Vegas every weekend looking for some easy money. Handicapped by not understanding basic money-management techniques, how much to bet in proportion to their total bankroll, they usually went home broke. In addition, not many players had the power of concentration and mental capacity required to use the complicated card-counting formula detailed in Thorp's Book. Of course, there were some big winners; bankrolled by two well-heeled high rollers, Thorp himself won tens of thousands of dollars in Nevada and Caribbean casinos, but because of these highly publicized winnings, he was eventually barred from play in all Nevada casinos.

Julian Braun's computer studies produced a plethora of data led to the development of a number of advanced blackjack systems. By the early seventies, scores of these systems were on the market, but because of their complexity, relatively few players were able to exploit them enough to win any significant amount. A number of these big winners, now also barred from the casinos, turned to systems-selling as a way to make a fast buck, besieging the occasional gambler with promises of quick riches and a life of luxury and travel, just by playing winning blackjack in glamorous casinos all over the world. "Blackjack Millionaires" appeared on television shows to plug their products, while national publication, such as The Wall Street Journal and Life, printed lead articles on this extraordinary phenomenon, the game which the casino could be beaten.

With all this publicity, blackjack soon overtook craps as the most popular casino game, and the systems-sellers made fat profits. As more would-be counters learned the game, the casinos added more tables to accommodate the influx of players. But then followed an interesting paradox, casino profits increased! Not only did their total profits increase, but their rate of profit increased. Proportionately, casino winnings were increasing faster than the number of players. Why? Because too many occasional players were being taken in by the false promises of the systems-sellers. It's extremely difficult to apply all the data embodied in the more complicated card-counting systems, and players, rushing into action too soon and with too small a bankroll to cover their inevitable losing cycles, didn't realize that the big winners had spent countless hours practicing and possessed the self-discipline necessary to become inured to the many distractions of the casino environment.